“Personal Comments on Clean Energy Standard Biennial Review”, by Roger Caiazza
I have followed the Climate Act since it was first proposed, submitted comments on the Climate Act implementation plan, and have written over 450 articles about New York’s net-zero transition.
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Personal Comments on Clean Energy Standard Biennial Review
The Climate Leadership & Community Protection Act (Climate Act) requires that the Public Service Commission (PSC) issue a review for notice and comment that considers “(a) progress a meeting the overall targets for deployment of renewable energy systems and zero emission sources, including factors that will or are likely to frustrate progress toward the targets; (b) distribution of systems by size and load zone; and (c) annual funding commitments and expenditures.” In July Clean Energy Standard Biennial Review Report (Biennial Review) was released in response to this requirement and this post describes my comments to the PSC.
I have followed the Climate Act since it was first proposed, submitted comments on the Climate Act implementation plan, and have written over 450 articles about New York’s net-zero transition. The opinions expressed in this article do not reflect the position of any of my previous employers or any other organization I have been associated with, these comments are mine alone.
Overview and Background
The Climate Act established a New York “Net Zero” target (85% reduction in GHG emissions and 15% offset of emissions) by 2050. It includes an interim 2030 reduction target of a 40% reduction by 2030. Two targets address the electric sector: 70% of the electricity must come from renewable energy by 2030 and all electricity must be generated by “zero-emissions” resources by 2040. The Climate Action Council (CAC) was responsible for preparing the Scoping Plan that outlined how to “achieve the State’s bold clean energy and climate agenda.” The Integration Analysis prepared by the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) and its consultants quantifies the impact of the electrification strategies. That material was used to develop the Draft Scoping Plan outline of strategies. After a year-long review, the Scoping Plan was finalized at the end of 2022. Since then, the State has been trying to implement the Scoping Plan recommendations through regulations, proceedings, and legislation.
Biennial Review Summary
The Introduction to the Biennial Review is a good summary of the report.
The Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act of 2019 requires that the Public Service Commission (Commission) issue a review for notice and comment that considers “(a) progress in meeting the overall targets for deployment of renewable energy systems and zero emission sources, including factors that will or are likely to frustrate progress toward the targets; (b) distribution of systems by size and load zone; and (c) annual funding commitments and expenditures.” This Report serves to inform the Commission’s review. It summarizes the progress made toward the renewable energy and zero emission goals set by the CLCPA since the establishment of New York State’s Clean Energy Standard (CES), assesses what remains to be done to achieve those goals, presents policy options and proposals, and invites comments from stakeholders and the public on these or any other matters raised in this Report. The Report focuses in particular on New York’s goal to obtain 70% of New York’s electricity from renewable sources by 2030 (the 70% goal) and the related goal of 9 gigawatts (GW) of offshore wind by 2035.
My Comments
A comprehensive review of the Biennial Report would have been an enormous effort, so I confined my review to a limited number of issues. The Biennial Review concedes that the 2030 goal to achieve 70% of New York’s electricity from renewable sources is unlikely to be achieved. However, it does not acknowledge that the issues that are causing delays may not be resolved anytime soon. Public Service Law §66-p(4) provides an exemption that enables a delay of the Climate Act targets but no one has defined the safety valve criteria.
There are a couple of broad concerns. An overarching issue with Climate Act implementation is the lack of a comprehensive a feasibility study. The recent announcement of the long-delayed State Energy Plan offers hope that there will be feasibility analyses from that effort, but that will not be available until late next year. In the meantime, the Biennial Review should address whether building as much wind and solar as possible as fast as possible is appropriate. There is another enormous risk that should be addressed. I maintain that the differences between resource planning for the existing system and the proposed weather-dependent electric energy system introduce reliability risks that need to be addressed now.
There has never been a clear and transparent accounting of costs. It is long past time for the impacts on rates to be provided. I recommended that this report should address consumer costs
Finally, I commented on a couple of potentially disingenuous approaches used in the Biennial Review. The emphasis on the Clean Energy Standard underestimates the challenge of meeting all the Climate Act mandates. In the Scoping Plan the unique use of the Reference Case gave misleading cost impact results.
Implications of Progress Issues
The Biennial Review concedes that the 2030 goal to achieve 70% of New York’s electricity from renewable sources is unlikely to be achieved. However, it does not acknowledge that the issues that are causing delays may not be resolved anytime soon. Section 5 provides a speculative path to the 2030 70% goal. Table 8 summarizes the outlook. There is a projected gap of 42,145 GWh or 37% of the 70% goal.
The remainder of Section 5 proposes new development estimates and CES reform options that can accelerate progress. However, while there is an assessment of major factors that have affected and will likely continue to affect progress towards the goals, there is no acknowledgment that those factors are likely to continue to be issues. It concludes that there is a potential path so the 70% goal could be met by 2033 but does not address how building as much wind and solar as possible as fast as possible will ensure a reliable system. It is time to consider a reassessment of the schedule and goals to develop a realistic revised schedule.
The introduction to the Biennial Review mentions New York Public Service Law § 66-p (4) “Establishment of a renewable energy program” that includes safety valve conditions for affordability and reliability that are directly related to the zero emissions resource. § 66-p (4) states: “The commission may temporarily suspend or modify the obligations under such program provided that the commission, after conducting a hearing as provided in section twenty of this chapter, makes a finding that the program impedes the provision of safe and adequate electric service; the program is likely to impair existing obligations and agreements; and/or that there is a significant increase in arrears or service disconnections that the commission determines is related to the program”.
The criteria used to define “safe and adequate electric service” and “significant increase in arrears or service disconnections” should be defined in the Biennial Review. This is necessary so that there is a clearly defined standard for determining the need to conduct the hearing included in § 66-p (4) that would form the basis for a schedule revision.
Feasibility
The Biennial Review is supposed to assess what remains to be done to achieve transition goals and present policy options and proposals, However, the Review does not confront the biggest problem – feasibility. At this time, the State has not presented any credible plan demonstrating that in the early to mid-2030s there will be sufficient reliable electricity generation to meet the demands anticipated from both current uses, from the expected addition of new large sources of load like chip fabrication plants and data centers, and from the load added as part of electrification decarbonization strategies. Indeed, the State has admitted that, in lieu of a definitive plan, it relies instead on a speculative hope for new technologies not yet invented or deployed at scale to bridge the large difference in electricity supply that will inevitably arise from the conflicting mandates. The State can point to no Demonstration Project showing how its hope for a de-carbonized electrical grid can succeed. Clearly this should be addressed in the Biennial Review.
I am particularly concerned about the unacknowledged inherent risks of relying on weather dependent resources to provide a substantial portion of future electric power in New York. Wind and solar are inherently intermittent – the sun does not shine at night and the wind does not always blow. Renewable resource intermittency is correlated. All the solar in New York is unavailable at night. It turns out that wind resources across New York also are usually high or low at the same time. There are exceptions but there is a high incidence of similar behavior. All the solutions proposed to deal with solar and wind intermittency have failed to acknowledge that weather dependency makes the reliance on correlated resources very risky. The draft Biennial Review unacknowledged risk is that whatever criteria are used to determine how many resources are necessary to provide an affordable and practical system to meet the worst-case weather induced wind and solar resource lull there will be a high probability that eventually there will be a more extreme case that exceeds the criteria. When that happens, rolling blackouts are inevitable and there is risk of a larger and more severe blackout.
Consumer Costs
On July 16, 2024 the New York State Comptroller Office released an audit of the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) and Public Service Commission (PSC) implementation efforts for the Climate Act titled Climate Act Goals – Planning, Procurements, and Progress Tracking (“Comptroller Report”). The Comptroller Report included the following key recommendation:
Conduct a detailed analysis of cost estimates to transition to renewable energy sources and meet Climate Act goals. Periodically update and report the results of the analysis to the public.
The Biennial Review should directly respond to this recommendation. In an interview with Susan ArbetterNYSERDA’s Doreen Harris said the “The proceeding that is before the PSC is intended to ‘specifically they look at all this in the context of consumer cost”. If the Biennial Review is part of the Proceeding, then costs should be included. However, consumer costs are not included in the report.
Disingenuous Approaches
The Introduction to the Biennial Review includes the following description in the contents of each section: “Policy options and proposals under consideration in this Report are limited to the Clean Energy Standard (CES) itself.” The problem is that the CES includes a 9-gigawatt (GW) goal for offshore wind by 2035, a 6 GW by 2025 goal for distributed solar, and a 3 GW energy storage resources goal by 2030. Those only cover a portion of the resources needed to achieve Climate Act goals. I think I represent most New Yorkers when I state that the Biennial Review should include all aspects of the transition not a subset of programs. Choosing subsets of related programs is inappropriate because we want to know the total costs to achieve all mandates and all challenges that must be addressed to meet the targets.
There is a related CES issue. In Section 5.1 on page 53 of the Biennial Review the document states: “In all other respects, this Report’s base case reflects the Reference Case presented in NYSERDA’s Integration Analysis”. There is a cost related problem relative to the Scoping Plan “Reference Case” that I have described in a blog post and in my comments on the Draft Scoping Plan. I noted that the Integration Analysis modeling scenarios used an unusual approach. In this type of analysis policy scenarios are typically compared to a “business-as-usual” future without any policy components. However, the Integration Analysis uses a Reference Case that is different than a typical business-as-usual future scenario because it includes already implemented policies. In the Scoping Plan this unique approach was used to suggest the costs of inaction are more than the costs of action, but that claim did not include all the costs to achieve the Climate Act mandates because it excluded the CES components. Everyone outside the Hochul Administration wants to know the costs to achieve the Climate Act, not some subset of component programs.
Discussion
The draft Biennial Review does not address fundamental issues. It does acknowledge that the schedule is in danger but does not concede there are fundamental problems that may not be resolvable. The presumption that a law written by ideologues with a schedule determined for political ends must be met no matter what needs to be laid to rest. A feasibility analysis that addresses the fundamental technology and implementation schedule issues is the only rational way forward.
As it stands the draft Biennial Review is another political document that fulfills a tortured interpretation of the Climate Act requirements. It apparently parses out different components of the implementation efforts. All the transition components must be considered, and the citizens of New York deserve to know the costs for the entire implementation effort.
It is time to confront overarching issues. There are technological issues related to the Integration Analysis strategies for a zero emissions electric grid by 2040. Until the challenges associated with dispatchable emissions-free resources are resolved then it is inappropriate to shut down any existing fossil-fired generators. Relying on weather-dependent resources introduces significant reliability risks that have not been acknowledged. Until this risk is understood better, it is inappropriate to continue to just build as much wind and solar as possible and hope it works out.
The recently announced draft Advanced Nuclear Technologies Blueprint is important for two reasons. It is an appropriate outline for a feasibility study for one of the transition components that should be expanded to all technologies. Secondly, it is recognition that nuclear is the only existing technology that has a proven record of significant carbon reductions. The implications of this blueprint should be incorporated into the Biennial Review.
Conclusion
Only time will tell if the Biennial Review is only a check the box response. While there are some hints that the ramifications of an unreasonable and unachievable energy transition are become so evident that they cannot be ignored, the draft Biennial Review does not confront the problems sufficiently. Public Service Law §66-p (4) provides for a potential delay of the Climate Act schedule and it was mentioned in the draft. In my opinion, if the Hochul Administration is truly committed to addressing the problems identified in the draft, then this requirement must get more attention in the final Biennial Review.