“The War on Carbon, Not Climate Change, Is the Real Existential Threat to the Future of Western Civilization”, Guest Post from Dick Storm. Thomas Shepstone

After working for over 50 years to do our parts in building the ‘Largest Machine in the World’ the American electric grid, here we are watching as misguided enviro-zealots destroy the foundation

The War on Carbon, Not Climate Change, Is the Real Existential Threat to the Future of Western Civilization

OCT 04, 2024

Guest Post from Dick Storm.

The Biden-Harris Administration and Congressional Democrats are self-righteous environmental zealots with low energy IQ’s, they are seriously misguided and they have created anti-American energy policies that are impossible to achieve.

These self-righteous Bureaucrats and elected officials are detached from energy reality and are destroying our country. Churchill’s Minister of Labour said, “Heaven runs on righteousness, and the Earth runs on energy.” Biden, Harris, and the Democrats do not understand this.

My retired engineer friends and I are among the 5% or so of Americans who understand energy and electricity generation.  The enviro-zealot government policymakers have been placed in office by the 95% majority that does notunderstand energy and electricity generation. 

The majority of Americans have been misguided into believing carbon is an existential threat, worse than nuclear weapons or other catastrophes.

How? By the mainstream media, entertainment personalities, ‘woke’ corporations, and misguided, low-energy IQ politicians. 

President Biden has stated that climate change is an existential threat facing humanity  He is wrong. The war on carbon is the threat to America’s future. 

Coal power has provided the foundation of America’s Industrial strength and our high quality of life. Coal continues to be important, especially during times of peak demand. Especially winter. For Industrial production, coal is used to produce 70% of the world’s steel, 90% of cement, and 61% of aluminum.

Energy is the lifeblood of a developed country’s industrial productive capacity, social functioning, food production, and job-creating economy. The environmental Zealots are doing their best to bleed out the energy Lifeblood of our country.

Energy is the economy, it fuels our way of life and supports a strong national defense.

One Engineer’s Steam Venting Rant

Yes, some may say I am a grumpy old man. Well, maybe I am. As I see it, I have a lot to be grumpy about. I am not alone, I know dozens of other veteran engineers who worked the same productive decades I did, beginning in the 1960’s. We studied and worked hard, long hours, and we did our best to contribute to building a better America. Especially the reliable, affordable electric grid.

After working for over 50 years to do our parts in building the ‘Largest Machine in the World’ the American electric grid, here we are watching as misguided enviro-zealots destroy the foundation of what we helped build. These enviro-zealots have low energy IQ’s, and nearly zero understanding of how reliable power generation functions, and as they work against the fuels we depend on. Worse yet, they do not seem to care about the consequences for our country.

I predict that blackouts will become more common and power costs will continue to escalate, thanks to the net-zero carbon path the U.S. is on. The “Inflation Reduction Act” codified the “Green New Deal” into law, and the increased anti-carbon Regulations of the EPA and other alphabet soup Federal agencies have America on a perilous path.

This winter will be difficult and it is likely there will be more lives lost, such as Texas experienced in 2021 with the winter Blackouts. I am steamed up and this commentary is my way of venting that steam.

Electricity in the 1950’s to 1970’s

Let me quote a 1950 magazine ad by Babcock & Wilcox. The last line reads:

“B&W will cooperate with our busy utilities for still further improvement-in service and a way of life that have made America great and strong”

My compliments to B&W, C-E, FW, G-E, Westinghouse, Riley, Alis-Chalmers, DeLaval (and many other fine U.S. supply-chain companies with hundreds of thousands of employees) and the electric utility industry. Yes, they succeeded in making America great and strong!

For over a hundred years, America had the most reliable, most reasonable cost electricity grid of any major nation. America set the standard of being the best at providing affordable and dependable electricity. The economy grew and the use of coal paralleled the growth of GDP.

Then, the “War on Coal” began. I am still at a loss as to why there was so much angst against the very fuel that powered America through two World Wars and built the largest industrial economy in the history of the world. I have written much on the war on coal and some of the people and organizations that promoted the “Self Inflicted Electricity Crisis.“

Here are some of my personal experiences and some of the reasons why I am irritated with enviro-zealots.

America had over 100 Years of affordable, reliable, abundant and dispatchable electricity until the War On Coal began in the 1990’s. Now, the infrastructure that provided the foundation of our reliable electric grid is being destroyed by policymakers who are either misinformed or have low energy IQ’s and have not done their homework. U.S. energy policymakers have created this crisis, right before our eyes.
 
In 2010, about 30% of the U.S. electricity generation capacity was provided by coal-fueled power plants, and 50% of electricity generation was from coal fuel. Since 2010, about half of these have been shut down. Suitable replacement of new electricity generation should have been built first before destroying about half of the reliable coal plants in America. A balanced portfolio would and should have included new nuclear plants, new high-efficiency, low-emissions (HELE) coal plants, and, of course, natural gas combined cycle plants.  

At least 125,000 MW’s of new, in-kind generation capacity should have been built before destroying the existing reliable, affordable, and dispatchable coal plants.

I will attempt to explain what is being done to destroy electricity reliability and what should be done.
 
Here is an example of a typical large utility coal power plant; Duke Energy’s Roxboro Generating Station in North Carolina. The first unit started up in 1966, and Unit #4 in 1980. This one is special to me because I was the startup engineer for Unit #3 in 1973, and I worked at the plant on all four units for several different companies over my career. So, I am very familiar with all the plant's major equipment.

This plant when operating at 2,500 MWh and an 80% load factor will consume about 700 tons of coal per hour. This is seven full railroad coal cars. When operating as designed, it would consume about six million tons of coal per year.  Let me compare this large thermal plant with a large hydro plant, say the Robert Moses hydroelectric plant at Niagara Falls.

This one thermal power plant in Roxboro produces as much as this huge facility and it fits on a real-estate parcel of a few thousand acres. The Robert Moses hydroelectric plant is powered by rainwater runoff from eight U.S. states and one Canadian Province. The outflow of most of the water from the Great Lakes flows to the Niagara River and through the hydroelectric generators installed there.

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Comparison of Energy Density, Coal, Hydro and Solar

How much power generation is 2,500 MW? Did you ever visit Niagara Falls? The U.S. side New York Power Authority Generation Station that uses the American share of the total outflow of the Great Lakes is about the same size in electricity generation capability as the Roxboro coal plant.

The energy density of hydroelectric power is very low, it takes enormous amounts of land area and elevation change to provide the potential for hydroelectric generation. In North America, all the large sources of falling water have been utilized.

Solar power to replace a coal plant the size of Roxboro has an even lower energy density, and it would require between 40 and 160 square miles of land area to provide intermittent 25% capacity factor generation when the weather permits. With battery storage, about 160 square miles would be required to replace a 2500 MW fossil plant.

Even then solar power is weather dependent on clouds and sunshine. On reliability, a snowstorm will reduce output to zero and a hailstorm destroy the capacity for months until the panels can be replaced. 

So, what’s the problem?

Over 122,000 MW of electric power generation capacity has been demolished. This is the equivalent of 50 power plants the size of Roxboro Generating Station or the size of the Robert Moses Hydro-electric plant in Niagara Falls, NY.

There has not been a major new coal plant built in the U.S. since 2013.  Yet, America is the Saudi Arabia of coal, and within our country is the highest quality, high BTU, low ash coal found on the planet.

How Do We Treat the Most Reliable, Most Affordable Electric Generating Plants in the U.S.?

The picture above is the implosion of the Sutton Unit #3 at Duke Energy near Wilmington, NC. This one is also personal to me because I was also the lead Boiler Startup engineer in charge in 1972 when Sutton #3 went into commercial operation. 

To generate 122,000 MW, (a conservative estimate of the total reliable coal generation capacity destroyed since 2010) it would take 290 plants like this. 

Who is cheering as these reliable coal plants are demolished?

The Sierra Club website keeps score on their “Beyond Coal” Campaign and they show 385 total coal Units shut down since 2010. According to the Sierra Club, only 145 to go.

Oh yes, there are, in fact, other’s who are cheering for America to sabotage our electric grid…..

Two fair questions can be asked:

1. Who cares?

2. Do we really need these old coal plants? 

I will answer the questions with an emphatic “Yes, I care, and Yes, we need them!  We do need the remaining 145 coal plants.”
 
What should America be doing? We should be building new nuclear power plants right now. Also, at least 50 new HELE (High Efficiency, Low Emissions) 2,500 MW coal plants. Until a new and expanded nuclear fleet can be designed, built, constructed, and proven, we should reinforce our electricity grid with more conventional and dispatchable generation.
 
A coal plant handles the ‘energy storage’ security concern by having the inherent capability of storing months of fuel on site. Electricity generation is not dependent on “just in time” pipeline-provided gas flow.
 
Overall, America produces about 16% of our electricity from coal fuel. However, here are three important differences between coal plants and solar and wind: 

1. Coal power is dispatchable.

2. Coal plants can be ramped up in power output to match the demand.

3. Wind and solar are intermittent and are, therefore, non-dispatchable.

Some advantages of a coal plant are:

1. Fuel can be stored on-site.

2. Coal power is less expensive to produce.

3. Coal power generation is dependable in all weather conditions, 24/7.

The greatest need for coal plants comes at peak demand hours in the summer and the winter, especially winter.

Energy Powers Economic Prosperity 

Reasonable electricity cost is especially important for Industrial production. For example, the production of primary metals such as aluminum, steel, and copper uses enormous amounts of electricity. Aluminum smelting requires 5 kWh per pound of aluminum smelted from aluminum oxide. That 5 kWh does not include the processing of Bauxite into alumina, transportation, ingot remelting, forging or sheet production. In my state of South Carolina, we have an aluminum smelter operated by Century Aluminum and a couple of steel mills operated by NUCOR. These use hundreds of Megawatts of power and that power must be of reasonable cost to remain competitive. 
 
When it comes to economic strength, it is Industrial production that provides the jobs that allow families to prosper. Over 40% of the world’s primary energy use is for primary metals production and manufacturing.

Reasonable cost, reliable electricity generation is a pre-requisite for economic prosperity and, especially, job-providing Industrial production.

What About Wind and Solar? Can these Renewables Replace Fossil Fuels?

In terms of primary energy, wind and solar, after decades of subsidies, provide an insignificant quantity of America’s primary energy. 

The War on Coal fueled power stations is contributing to the coming electricity reliability crisis. The War on Coal is self-Inflicted and anti-American. wind and solar cannot replace the primary energy of coal, nuclear, and gas. Six materials that our society depends on require enormous amounts of energy and cannot be electrified: steel, aluminum, plastics, ammonia fertilizer, and cement. 

Electricity is secondary energy.  Electrifying everything is impossible and needs to be evaluated by a new President and Congressional leaders that care about the future of our country. The Biden-Harris administration and too many Democrats act as if they are puppets of Xi Jinping, Putin and the Ayatollah, working to weaken the U.S. from within.

So, What about China and the Rest of the World?

In 2023, more coal was burned in the world than ever in recorded history. Developing countries and the second largest economy of the world China are lifting people from poverty and increasing manufacturing using conventional forms of power generation, including coal. China now has over 400 new ultra-supercritical, coal plants either in permitting stages or under construction. China uses about 56% of the world’s total coal consumption to power its manufacturing economy. Long story short on the “Earth Running on Energy”, China Gets it!

China uses about 10 times the coal consumption of the U.S. and China accounts for 56% of global coal demand. In 2022, coal provided more than 60% of China’s power generation.

What Would it Take to Replace Fossil Fuels for Electricity Generation?

The 2023 book by Donn Dears outlined what it would take to replace coal and gas power generation in the U.S. Here is his summary:

Nuclear power is the largest carbon-free form of electric power generation and the best hope for the future. However, as Mr. Dears points out, it would take about 31 nuclear plant expansions such as that just completed last year at Georgia Power’s Plant Vogtle. That 2,200 MW expansion took over ten years to complete. Now, how feasible is it for the U.S. supply chain (including skilled talent) to build 31 Plant Vogtles every year from now till 2050?

Conclusions

America has no energy policy, only a decarbonization policy, only climate policies that attack the very fuels that our country depends upon.

The net-zero carbon path that America is on will weaken, if not destroy, our country’s productive capacity. Worse yet, if CO2 emissions are a concern, then shutting down all of America’s coal plants will not make a difference anyway.

Further, the science of anthropogenic climate change is not settled and many Scientists have strong arguments that the consumption of carbon is only a minor contributor to climate change. So, why destroy America’s productive capacity and cede further manufacturing jobs to China or other countries of the world?