With Summer's Arrival Comes the Annual Flood of Relentless Heatwave Hype Here is a collection of writings that don't fit the narrative about heat waves.
The debate on climate change often hinges on the link between atmospheric CO2 levels and Earth's temperature. However, a recent study in the Proceedings of the NAS challenges the simplicity
With Summer's Arrival Comes the Annual Flood of Relentless Heatwave Hype
Here is a collection of writings that don't fit the narrative about heat waves.
JUN 17, 2024
Some of my recent writings about heat waves, heat index, and the propaganda surrounding the unscientific attribution of heat waves to climate change.
Subscribed
Characterized by temperatures significantly above the norm for a specific region and time of year, heat waves can blanket both cities and the countryside, bringing discomfort and danger in equal measure.
But how has our understanding of heat waves evolved? As scientists refine their definitions, we see a shift from simple temperature thresholds to more nuanced metrics that consider duration, humidity, and nighttime temperatures. This evolution helps us better grasp the true impact of these scorching events on health, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Dive deeper to uncover the changing definitions, historical records, and contributing factors behind heatwaves, and discover how urbanization and population growth are intensifying their effects.
The heat index is a measure that combines air temperature and relative humidity to tell us how hot it actually feels, taking into account the body's reduced ability to cool itself through sweating in high humidity. When the heat index climbs above 90°F (32°C), it signals increased risks of heat-related illnesses like heat exhaustion or heat stroke.
This concept, refined by the U.S. National Weather Service in the 1970s, helps us better understand and prepare for the dangers of extreme heat. Curious about the history and evolution of the heat index, and how it impacts our daily lives? Read on to uncover the science behind this crucial metric and its implications for our health and safety.
The debate on climate change often hinges on the link between atmospheric CO2 levels and Earth's temperature. However, a recent study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences challenges the simplicity of this relationship.
The study presents a figure plotting CO2 levels against geological time, overlaid with periods marked as 'Relatively Warm' and 'Relatively Cool'. This visual shows that high CO2 levels don't always coincide with warmer climates and vice versa.
Geological records reveal that Earth's climate has fluctuated significantly. For instance, during the Carboniferous and early Permian periods, high CO2 levels coexisted with icehouse conditions. Conversely, some warm periods had relatively low CO2 levels. These discrepancies suggest that many factors beyond CO2 influence global temperatures, such as volcanic activity, ocean currents, solar radiation, and continental configurations.
As we collect more temperature data, the likelihood of recording new extreme temperatures increases, not necessarily because of a change in underlying temperature distributions, but due to the larger sample size. This statistical reality means that while more records are being set, it doesn’t always indicate a direct correlation with increasing global temperatures.
Explore the intricate causes and profound impacts of heat waves to understand how these extreme weather events shape our environment and challenge our resilience.
The debate on climate change often centers around whether the real issue is excess heat or the rising levels of CO2. The anthropogenic global warming (AGW) hypothesis posits that excess heat results from the accumulation of greenhouse gases, primarily CO2, in the atmosphere. To mitigate climate change, it's crucial to reduce emissions of these gases to address the energy imbalance and ultimately lower global temperatures. This rise in temperature is believed to drive various AGW impacts such as droughts, floods, extreme temperatures, and more frequent and intense storms.
However, it's important to consider that while CO2 levels play a significant role, it's the excess heat trapped by these gases that causes the most immediate and tangible effects. This understanding leads to a critical evaluation of our solutions, particularly the role of wind and solar farms, which recent studies have shown can contribute significantly to localized warming.
Dive deeper to explore whether our focus should be on the excess heat or the CO2 levels themselves and understand the complexities behind climate change and its mitigation.
The skepticism surrounding climate attribution studies, especially those linking specific weather events directly to climate change, is well illustrated by a study attributing extreme humid heat in southern West Africa to human-induced climate change. This nonpeer-reviewed study claims that such events, like the one in February 2024, are becoming more intense and frequent due to climate change.
A critical issue arises when comparing this event to a similar record set in 1998, raising questions about the robustness of attributing the 2024 heatwave solely to climate change without considering natural climate variability. The IPCC itself acknowledges the inherent unpredictability of the climate system, making deterministic predictions about the frequency of extreme weather events questionable.
Climate models used in attribution studies, while sophisticated, have limitations in resolution and accuracy, impacting their findings. Overstating the certainty of predictions can lead to public skepticism and undermine trust in climate science. It's crucial to maintain a balance between highlighting climate risks and ensuring scientific rigor, particularly when such studies drive policy decisions and significant financial investments.
For more insights on this topic, read the full article.