Doug Sheridan Says
RMI Numbers Should Be Treated like a Seven Year Quess
The FT writes, research from the Rocky Mountain Institute published this week argues “there is a clear exponential growth pattern for electric vehicle sales.” If EV sales continue to accelerate—and tricky problems such as charging stations are addressed—then EV sales could comprise 62 to 86% of auto sales globally by 2030, RMI says.
These findings are supported by the International Energy Agency (IEA) most recent forecast. Almost one in five cars sold worldwide this year will be an EV, the organisation said. And EVs will account for 18% of global car sales compared with just 4% of global car sales in 2020, according to the agency’s annual outlook.
But these numbers should be treated with caution. China, the world’s largest car market, has been subsidising EVs and those perks are now being phased out, even as they are under attack from Europe. Infrastructure challenges remain a threat to growth. The “painfully slow” connection of new vehicle chargers to power grids is a problem in the UK and a shortage of charging stations is still a challenge in the US.
Let’s not forget supply chain worries. Battery costs rose in 2023 because of inflationary pressures and the war in Ukraine, RMI noted, while arguing that “it is likely that the long-term downward cost trend will resume.”
But these problems can be overcome. Researchers at the University of Exeter found that in Norway, electric vehicle sales surged to 79% in 2022 from 18% in 2015 thanks to subsidies that made EVs cheaper than conventional cars. In California, EV sales are now a quarter of the auto market. In the rest of the US, government subsidies are expected to cut EV costs by $3,000-$9,000.
These trends are a good sign for the environment. Automobiles account for most of transport’s 29% cent share of US GHG emissions, according to the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). If governments worldwide keep subsidising EV costs—and invest in charging infrastructure—consumers can expect more EV showrooms on streets near them.
Our Take 1: The notion that EVs will be 62% to 86% of global auto is simply not realistic. It's a fairy tale, not a forecast. That FT believed this RMI study worthy of its ink says a lot about where its journalism is—that is, the lack of effort to get things right when it comes to things like the energy transition.
Our Take 2: RMI bases it's forecast in part on the absurd assumption that the rest of the world will follow the example of Norway, a tiny and rich country that has effectively outlawed anything but EVs. But there are almost 200 other countries—and 8 billion other people—who have different needs, preferences, and constraints.
Our Take 3: Hey RMI, if we calculate the growth of babies in their early years, and then assume those rapid growth rates continue in their later years, the math suggests Earth will soon be overrun by energy-hogging human colossi the size of small buildings. Maybe RMI should issue a report on this next?