Electrifying US trucking could cost nearly $1 trillion: study Fleets and charger operators would need to spend $620 billion, with utilities and the government paying $370 billion, per a Roland Berger

“What Roland Berger’s study shows us is that this mad dash to zero [emissions] exposes the supply chain to a $1 trillion unfunded mandate,” American Trucking Associations President and CEO Chris Spear

DIVE BRIEF

Electrifying US trucking could cost nearly $1 trillion: study

Fleets and charger operators would need to spend $620 billion, with utilities and the government paying $370 billion, per a Roland Berger report funded by the Clean Freight Coalition.

Published March 19, 2024

Colin CampbellSenior Reporter

Lisa Mullings of NATSO, Jim Mullen of the Clean Freight Coalition, Chris Spear of the American Trucking Associations and Laura Perrotta of the American Truck Dealers present takeaways from a study at a virtual news conference Tuesday, March 19.Microsoft Teams screenshot

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Dive Brief:

• Electrifying the U.S. trucking industry could cost close to $1 trillion, according to a Roland Berger study commissioned and released Tuesday by the Clean Freight Coalition.

• Fleets and charger operators would have to invest $620 billion on infrastructure, and utilities would have to spend $370 billion to upgrade grid networks for commercial vehicles, per the study. The estimate does not include purchases of electric trucks, which can cost 2 to 3 times more than their diesel counterparts.

• “Without support, this would lead to significant increases in freight rates in order to fund this,” said Wilfried Aulbur, senior partner at Roland Berger, during a video conference.

Dive Insight:

The coalition announced the study as the Environmental Protection Agency prepares to release a final rule this month with more stringent standards on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from heavy-duty trucks beginning in model year 2027.

The trucking industry groups and stakeholders used the report to push back on EPA and California Air Resources Board zero-emission timelines they view as unreasonable.

“What Roland Berger’s study shows us is that this mad dash to zero [emissions] exposes the supply chain to a $1 trillion unfunded mandate,” American Trucking Associations President and CEO Chris Spear said. “This is not included in the latest Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act.” 

Lisa Mullings, president and CEO of the National Association of Truck Stop Operators, said her members will sell whatever fuel customers will buy, and electric truck charging is a key part of the industry’s future as demand grows.

“However, EPA hasn’t adequately considered all of the challenges we face in transitioning to heavy duty truck electrification,” Mullings said. “It will take hours for somebody to fuel for just a couple of hundred miles. Compare this to today’s trucks, where in about 15 minutes, a truck can get up to 1,000 or more miles of range. This is going to fundamentally alter how we move freight in the country.”

Wilfried Aulbur, senior partner at Roland Berger.

Microsoft Teams screenshot

 

Aulbur compared CARB’s Advanced Clean Fleets and Advanced Clean Trucks timelines for phasing out diesel-powered trucks to the nation’s rapid adoption of smartphones, which still took 10 to 12 years.

“It’s a very different thing to take a Nokia, throw it into the dustbin and come home with an iPhone,” the Roland Berger senior partner said, “compared to creating the ecosystem that we need.”

Medium-duty charging infrastructure is less costly, an average of $54,000 per vehicle, versus the $145,000 per vehicle for heavy-duty, the report said. The group is advocating for first electrifying the medium-duty sector and remaining technology agnostic, in other words, open to other diesel alternatives like hydrogen fuel cell. 

Clean Freight Coalition Executive Director Jim Mullen, a former acting head of the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration, said the trucking industry is committed to pursuing a zero-emissions future.

“We need to collaborate with regulators and legislators to make sure that it’s done in such a fashion we won’t see a repeat of COVID, which was pandemic-induced,” Mullen said. “Let’s not self-induce.”