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“MEDIA LEAVES OUT KEY DETAILS FROM HARVARD STUDY CLAIMING EPA UNDERESTIMATES OIL AND NATURAL GAS METHANE EMISSIONS” MAY 4, 2023 | NICOLE JACOBS
MEDIA LEAVES OUT KEY DETAILS FROM HARVARD STUDY CLAIMING EPA UNDERESTIMATES OIL AND NATURAL GAS METHANE EMISSIONS
MAY 4, 2023 | NICOLE JACOBS
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A recent study provides a classic example of headlines not matching reality when it comes to reporting on oil and natural gas activities.
The study, which was conducted by Harvard researchers and published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, claims that methane emissions from the oil and natural gas industry between 2010 and 2019 were 70 percent higher than the EPA’s own estimates.
Media jumped on this headline, despite the limitations of the research and without the full picture of the authors’ findings and acknowledgments – namely, that the oil and gas industry is reducing emissions and on track to decrease overall U.S. emissions even if no other sectors do.
Good News: Methane Reductions Are on the Right Track
Despite estimating that methane emissions were significantly higher than previously measured between 2010 and 2019, the study also acknowledged that methane emissions intensity has been dramatically declining:
“If the 2010 to 2019 decreasing trend in methane intensity shown in Fig. 4 continues at its current rate (relative annual reduction of −0.43% a−1), the methane intensity would drop to 1.5% by 2030. Applying this methane intensity to the increased production in the IEO 2022 Reference Scenario and our best emission estimate of 15.6 Tg a−1 for 2019 indicate an US oil/gas emission of 10.6 Tg a−1 in 2030, 32% lower than 2019 levels, and a 15% decrease in total US anthropogenic emissions if other sectors taken from the US EPA inventory are assumed constant.” (emphasis added)
Voluntary commitments such as the Environmental Partnership are helping to continuously improve the industry’s environmental stewardship efforts, find potential leaks and fix them faster. Companies participating in the Partnership reduced emissions nearly in half in 2022 – for the second year in a row:
“In 2021, there was a 40 percent increase in the number of participating companies in the flare management programs. These companies represent 62 percent and 40 percent of total U.S. oil and natural gas production, respectively. Including new company participants, there was a 45 percent reduction in flare intensity and a 26 percent reduction in total flare volumes from the previous year.” (emphasis added)
Study Makes Big Claims, but Has Considerable Limitations
In order to compile methane data, the study used satellites to observe atmospheric methane concentrations to quantify emissions trends in oil and natural gas production regions in North America, and then associate them with production and infrastructure. However, these satellites monitored production regions at specific moments in time, and because methane emissions vary based on the life stage of different wells, along with changes in technology and planned releases, measurements at sporadic points can paint an inaccurate picture of overall emissions.
Additionally, while the authors attribute historical, previously uncounted methane emissions to oil and natural gas fields by using satellite data, this runs the risk of misattributing emissions from other infrastructure sources to the energy industry. Regions where oil and natural gas are produced are often home to overlapping infrastructure, including agriculture, vehicle transit, and other industrial activities, according to the One Future Coalition:
“Some satellites have not yet demonstrated the ability to distinguish active energy infrastructure sources from other types of methane-emitting sources within the same region.”
Further, the authors also assume certain error distributions that are not in line with standard practice, allowing them to arrive at their “70 percent higher” claim. By making particular, uncommon assumptions in their analysis, the authors of the study were able to attribute more methane emissions to the oil and natural gas industry. Specifically, the authors did not assume a normal error distribution, and admitted that this attributed more methane emissions to the oil and natural gas industry:
“We find that assuming a log-normal error distribution (inversions #1-6) for prior emission rather than a normal distribution (inversions #7-12) typically results in higher posterior emission estimates, by better capturing the observed heavy tail of the emission probability density functions. Assuming a larger prior error allows stronger upward correction of oil/gas emissions.” (emphasis added)
Bottom Line: While the headlines failed to acknowledge the researchers’ positive findings, the U.S. oil and natural gas industry is making significant progress reducing methane emissions from operations.