HEADLINE: “ABC News Blames Tornado Surge On Climate Change—But Data Says Otherwise”, by Linnea Lueken

“A recent story by ABC News, “Climate and environment updates: Tornado activity doubled March average: NOAA,” classifies recent severe tornado outbreaks under their “climate crisis” category…”

ABC News Blames Tornado Surge On Climate Change—But Data Says Otherwise

While March 2025 saw strong, destructive tornadoes, it was not a record breaker.

by Linnea Lueken

Apr 14, 2025

in Extreme Weather, Media, News and Opinion, Science

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A recent story by ABC News, “Climate and environment updates: Tornado activity doubled March average: NOAA,” classifies recent severe tornado outbreaks under their “climate crisis” category, implying that these storms were caused by global warming. [emphasis, links added]

This is false.

Climate change is not causing an increase in the number or severity of tornados, nor can it be connected to such a limited event.

ABC warns:

The climate crisis is not a distant threat; it’s happening right now and affecting what matters most to us.

According to a new report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. tornado activity in March was more than twice the monthly average, with over 200 tornadoes recorded.

Although ABC doesn’t explicitly state that this tornado season has been caused by climate change, the story strongly implies it, and as such, it cannot be left unchallenged because it is wrong.

The United States did experience a destructive and violent tornado [outbreak] in March 2025, but it was not a record breaker in terms of numbers or strength, nor does it reflect a long-term trend that would be necessary to prove the climate connection.

NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) disagree strongly with ABC’s claims.

ABC’s alarming coverage of the 2025 tornado season is at odds with the data.

NCEI reports that tornado records in the past are spotty because they are very short-lived and aren’t always reported, especially as one moves further back into the past.

NCEI reports, “[m]any significant tornadoes may not make it into the historical record since Tornado Alley was very sparsely populated during the 20th century.”

Doppler weather radar did not become widespread until the 1990s. Because of the low coverage of weather radar before then and much higher coverage in recent years, NCEI explains that “observation practices have led to an increase in the reported number of weaker tornadoes, and in recent years EF-0 tornadoes have become more prevalent in the total number of reported tornadoes.”

NCEI continues:

With increased National Doppler radar coverage, increasing population, and greater attention to tornado reporting, there has been an increase in the number of tornado reports over the past several decades. This can create a misleading appearance of an increasing trend in tornado frequency.

To better understand the variability and trend in tornado frequency in the United States, the total number of EF-1 and stronger, as well as strong to violent tornadoes (EF-3 to EF-5 category on the Enhanced Fujita scale) can be analyzed. These tornadoes would have likely been reported even during the decades before

Doppler radar use became widespread and practices resulted in increasing tornado reports. The bar charts below indicate there has been little trend in the frequency of the stronger tornadoes over the past 55 years.

Data from NOAA’s (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) tornado count show no trend in [increased numbers] since the introduction of widespread Doppler radar. (See figures below)

Figure 1: Trend of all tornadoes counted since 1950. Note that the trend stops increasing once the widespread coverage of Doppler weather radar is achieved in the 1990s. Red are preliminary estimates for this year.

When it comes to the strongest tornadoes, EF-3 and above, there appears to be a downward trend. (see figure below)

Climate at a Glance: Tornadoes points out that as recently as 2017 through 2018, the United States set records for the longest period in history without a tornado death and the longest period in history without an F3 or stronger tornado.

In fact, the two record-low years for the number of tornadoes both occurred this past dozen years, in 2014 and 2018.

Moreover, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) finds that “[t]here is low confidence in observed trends in small spatial-scale phenomena such as tornadoes.”

ABC’s alarming coverage of the 2025 tornado season is at odds with the data. There is no dangerous climate signal in the tornado data, and there may even be evidence that the modest warming of the past century is related to the decline in severe tornado outbreaks in the United States.

A single severe tornado season, or concentrated outbreak, is not evidence of catastrophic climate change; only a long-term sustained trend would suggest climate change might be a factor, and there is no such trend.

Read more at Climate Realism

BOTTOMLINE: “Moreover, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) finds that “[t]here is low confidence in observed trends in small spatial-scale phenomena such as tornadoes.”