HEADLINE: “ Research & Commentary: Report Finds New York’s Decision to Ban Fracking Had Serious Economic Consequences for Shale Counties”, By Tim Benson
“A Special Report released by the Heritage Foundation in April 2025 has found New York’s decision to ban the process of hydraulic fracturing (commonly known as “fracking”) for natural gas in 2010…”
Research & Commentary: Report Finds New York’s Decision to Ban Fracking Had Serious Economic Consequences for Shale Counties
By Tim Benson
Published June 11, 2025
Tagged:
A Special Report released by the Heritage Foundation in April 2025 has found that New York’s decision to ban the process of hydraulic fracturing (commonly known as “fracking”) for natural gas in 2010 has had serious economic consequences for the residents of the Empire State living above the Marcellus Shale. It has resulted in a decade and a half of lost opportunity for rural economic development.
“Hydraulic Fracturing and Economic Outcomes: A Study of Marcellus Shale Counties in Pennsylvania and New York” looks at the 14 “Twin Tiers” counties straddling the New York-Pennsylvania border, each sitting on rich natural gas deposits in the Marcellus Shale to examine the economic impact of New York’s 2010 fracking moratorium and 2014 fracking ban.
The report found that the New York counties where fracking was banned (Allegany, Broome, Cattaraugus, Chemung, Delaware, Steuben, Tioga) experienced significantly lower economic growth than their neighboring counties across the border in Pennsylvania (Bradford, McKean, Potter, Sullivan, Susquehanna, Tioga, Wyoming). Over the study period, these Quaker State counties had a $11,000 higher per person gross domestic product (GDP) and a $27,000 higher GDP per household.
Further, the report authors used a difference-in-differences regression analysis to show that the divergence in economic outcomes in these counties only began after New York’s fracking ban. Prior to this, the Twin Tiers counties tracked similarly in both GDP and employment, with the New York counties generally slightly ahead. After the Pennsylvania Twin Tiers counties began to participate in the fracking revolution, at the same time as their sister counties across the state line were prohibited from doing so, the Quaker State counties saw a surge in local income, job growth, and GDP, while the Empire State counties stagnated or saw weaker growth.
These economic gains were not limited to extraction. Construction, hospitality, and retail in these Pennsylvania counties also saw growth, indicating that fracking catalyzed a broad economic uplift.
“That Pennsylvania only surpasses New York counties in GDP per capita when mining is included underscores how crucial hydraulic fracturing has been to Pennsylvania’s economic growth,” the report notes. “It directly ties the increase in GDP to the shale revolution, as these sectors are at the core of fracking activities. Without the economic surge from these industries, Pennsylvania’s economy in the Twin Tiers would have remained below New York’s in terms of GDP per capita, highlighting the transformative role that fracking played in reshaping the economic landscape of Pennsylvania’s Twin Tier counties. These results serve as compelling evidence that hydraulic fracturing was the primary driver of Pennsylvania’s relative economic success during this period.”
“Based on these results the authors conclude that New York lawmakers did not act in the best interests of their constituents by banning hydrofracturing,” the report concludes. “By overestimating the risk associated with the practice…they stripped their constituents of lucrative income associated with hydraulic fracturing. Furthermore, the research presented here shows that jobs increased significantly in Pennsylvania counties which fully embraced the practice. Therefore, New Yorkers living in Marcellus Shale counties should urge their lawmakers to lift the ban. Lawmakers in other areas of the United States with fracking bans should also reconsider these unnecessary and economically harmful bans.”
The natural gas deposits found in New York, Pennsylvania and throughout the United States are abundant, affordable, and environmentally safe. Moreover, they can ensure the United States is the world’s largest energy producer well beyond the 21st century. Therefore, as the Heritage authors conclude, policymakers should refrain from placing unnecessary burdens on the natural gas and oil industries which positively impact state economies and are committed to safe, environmentally responsible extraction.
The following documents provide more information about hydraulic fracturing.
Hydraulic Fracturing and Economic Outcomes: A Study of Marcellus Shale Counties in Pennsylvania and New York
https://www.heritage.org/sites/default/files/2025-04/SR317_1.pdf
This Special Report from the Heritage Foundation finds New York’s decision to ban hydraulic fracturing resulted in a significant loss of potential income and job creation for seven counties located above the Marcellus Shale, comparing them to seven counties across the border in Pennsylvania where fracking remained legal.
Debunking Four Persistent Myths about Hydraulic Fracturing
https://heartland.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Oct-23-FrackingMyths.pdf
This Heartland Institute Policy Brief by Policy Analyst Timothy Benson and Research Fellow Linnea Lueken outlines the basic elements of the fracking process and refutes the four most widespread fracking myths, providing lawmakers and the public with the research and data they need to make informed decisions about hydraulic fracturing.
Impacts of the Natural Gas and Oil Industry on the U.S. Economy in 2019
https://www.api.org/-/media/Files/Policy/American-Energy/PwC/API-PWC-Economic-Impact-Report.pdf
This study, conducted by PricewaterhouseCoopers and commissioned by the American Petroleum Institute, shows that the natural gas and oil industry supported 11.3 million U.S. jobs in 2019, produced $892 billion in labor income, and had a nationwide economic impact of nearly $1.7 trillion. The study also shows the natural gas and oil industry has had widespread impacts in each of the 50 states.
America’s Progress at Risk: An Economic Analysis of a Ban on Fracking and Federal Leasing for Natural Gas and Oil Development
https://www.api.org/~/media/Files/Oil-and-Natural-Gas/Hydraulic-Fracturing/2020/fracking-ban-study-americas-progress-at-risk.pdf
The study from the American Petroleum Institute (conducted by economic modeling firm OnLocation) warns that banning federal leasing and fracking on public and private lands, which some presidential candidates have proposed, would cost up to 7.5 million American jobs in 2022 alone, lead to a cumulative GDP loss of $7.1 trillion by 2030, slash household incomes by $5,400 annually, increase household energy costs by more than $600 per year, and reduce farm incomes by 43 percent due to higher energy costs. If a ban is enacted, the U.S. would flip from being a net exporter of oil and petroleum products to importing more than 40 percent of supplies by 2030
What If…Hydraulic Fracturing Were Banned? (2020 Edition)
https://www.globalenergyinstitute.org/sites/default/files/2019-12/hf_ban_report_final.pdf
This study from the Global Energy Institute at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce says a ban on fracking in the United States would be catastrophic for the U.S. economy. Their analysis shows that if such a ban were imposed in 2021, by 2025 it would eliminate 19 million jobs and reduce U.S. GDP by $7.1 trillion. Tax revenue at the local, state, and federal levels would decline by nearly $1.9 trillion combined. Natural gas prices would leap by 324 percent, causing household energy bills to more than quadruple. By 2025, motorists would pay twice as much at the pump for gasoline as oil prices spike to $130 per barrel, while less domestic energy production would also mean less energy security.
The U.S. Leads the World in Clean Air: The Case for Environmental Optimism
https://files.texaspolicy.com/uploads/2018/11/27165514/2018-11-RR-US-Leads-the-World-in-Clean-Air-ACEE-White.pdf
This paper from the Texas Public Policy Foundation examines how the United States achieved robust economic growth while dramatically reducing emissions of air pollutants. The paper states that these achievements should be celebrated as a public policy success story, but instead the prevailing narrative among political and environmental leaders is one of environmental decline that can only be reversed with a more stringent regulatory approach. Instead, the paper urges for the data to be considered and applied to the narrative.
Nothing in this Research & Commentary is intended to influence the passage of legislation, and it does not necessarily represent the views of The Heartland Institute. For further information on this subject, visit Environment & Climate News, The Heartland Institute’s website, and PolicyBot, Heartland’s free online research database.
The Heartland Institute can send an expert to your state to testify or brief your caucus; host an event in your state; or send you further information on a topic. Please don’t hesitate to contact us if we can be of assistance! If you have any questions or comments, contact Heartland’s Government Relations department, at governmentrelations@heartland.org or 312/377-4000.
Tim Benson joined The Heartland Institute in September 2015 as a policy analyst in the Government Relations Department.
BOTTOMLINE: This study from the Global Energy Institute at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce says a ban on fracking in the United States would be catastrophic for the U.S. economy. Their analysis shows that if such a ban were imposed in 2021, by 2025 it would eliminate 19 million jobs and reduce U.S. GDP by $7.1 trillion. Tax revenue at the local, state, and federal levels would decline by nearly $1.9 trillion combined. Natural gas prices would leap by 324 percent, causing household energy bills to more than quadruple. By 2025, motorists would pay twice as much at the pump for gasoline as oil prices spike to $130 per barrel, while less domestic energy production would also mean less energy security.