How Electricity Is Changing, Country by Country By Nadja Popovich Nov. 20, 2023
“ That’s because global demand for electricity has grown even faster than clean energy, leaving fossil fuels to fill the gap.”
World electricity generation
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
0
5 million
10 million
15 million
20 million
25 million gigawatt hours
Coal
Gas
Wind and solar
Hydroelectric and other
Nuclear
How Electricity Is Changing, Country by Country
By Nadja Popovich Nov. 20, 2023
Carbon-free electricity has never been more plentiful. Wind and solar power have taken off over the past two decades, faster than experts ever expected. But it hasn’t yet been enough to halt the rise of coal- and gas-burning generation.
That’s because global demand for electricity has grown even faster than clean energy, leaving fossil fuels to fill the gap.
The dynamic has pushed up carbon emissions from the power sector at a time when scientists say they need to be falling — and fast — to avoid dangerous levels of global warming.
Where Fossil-Fueled Power Is Still Growing Today
TREND OVER LAST DECADE
Declining
fossil power
Mostly clean
already
Plateau or
other trend
Rising
fossil power
Circles are sized by the amount of total power generated by each country in 2021-22.
UnitedStates
U.K.
Turkey
Spain
SouthAfrica
SaudiArabia
Russia
Mexico
Japan
Italy
Iran
Indonesia
India
Germany
France
Egypt
China
Canada
Brazil
Australia
Argentina
Note: Total generation data is shown through 2022 for the countries that have power generation data available through that year. For others, data is shown through 2021. More information on how the categories were determined can be found at the bottom of this page.
Much of the rising power demand has come from rapidly-developing countries like China and India, where new coal plants are still coming online alongside wind and solar farms to power meteoric economic growth. But many industrialized nations are also not moving away from fossil fuels fast enough to meet their stated climate change goals.
Even on today’s trajectory, many experts expect that fossil-fueled power will peak globally in the next few years. It’s already falling in major economies like the United States and Europe, and analysts expect China, by far the world’s largest power producer, to begin reducing coal-fired generation soon.
The world’s climate future will depend, in large part, on what happens next.
Experts broadly agree that keeping global temperature rise to “well below” 2 degrees Celsius, the world’s self-imposed climate goal — and ideally as low as 1.5 degrees — will require peaking and then rapidly reducing fossil-fueled power, in favor of carbon-free sources, like wind and solar. (The world has already warmed about 1.2 degrees since preindustrial times.)
“The big question,” said Dave Jones, an electricity analyst at Ember, a London-based think tank, is whether countries can increase the pace of renewable energy deployment so that they’re not just bringing down power sector emissions slowly, but “actually enabling deep and rapid carbon dioxide emissions cuts.”
That question will take center stage at a global climate summit later this month.
The stakes are enormous.
The power sector is already the world’s single biggest source of planet-warming emissions. And plans to decarbonize many other parts of the global economy — like transportation, buildings and industry — also rely on plugging in to cleaner power.
How electricity generation has changed in recent decades for the world’s major power producers, both rich countries and rapidly-developing ones, helps explain today’s global picture and underscores the climate challenges ahead.
Falling Fossil Fuels
FOSSIL
CLEAN POWER
Nuclear
Hydro
Wind & solar
Oil
Gas
Coal
See trends
Compare totals
United States
’00
’20
0
1 million
2 million
3 million
4 million gigawatt hours
European Union
’00
’20
0
1 million
2 million
United Kingdom
’00
’20
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
Australia
’00
’20
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
In the United States and much of Europe, fossil-fueled power generation has been declining for years, especially coal. It has even started to fall in coal-reliant Australia.
The rapid growth of renewable energy has played a major role.
Wind turbines and solar panels generated 22 percent of the European Union’s electricity last year, up from less than 1 percent two decades ago. The United States made 15 percent of its electricity from wind and solar energy last year, which is slightly more than the global average.
The boom of cheap renewable power helped replace coal-fired generation in Europe. In the United States, natural gas — which pollutes less than coal when burned, but still warms the climate — played a key role in coal’s decline, alongside quickly-growing wind and solar.
Lower overall electricity demand also contributed to the decline of fossil-fueled power.
Electricity use grew rapidly in rich countries like the United States and many European nations during the previous century, but started to plateau or even decline in the 2000s largely thanks to improved energy efficiency, as well as the outsourcing of heavy industries.
Yet neither the United States’ nor the European Union’strajectories are currently on track to meet the world’s ambitious 1.5 degree Celsius climate goal. Both major power producers recently passed legislation aimed at ramping up renewable energy, but growing economic headwinds and other challenges threaten to slow down their transitions, even as energy experts say they need to accelerate.
Growth Through Coal
FOSSIL
CLEAN POWER
Nuclear
Hydro
Wind & solar
Oil
Gas
Coal
See trends
Compare totals
China
’00
’20
0
2 million
4 million
6 million
8 million gigawatt hours
India
’00
’20
0
500,000
1 million
1.5 million
Indonesia
’00
’20
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
Malaysia
’00
’20
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
The trend so far looks very different in countries with rapidly growing economies — nowhere more so than in China.
China overtook the United States as the world’s single largest power producer in 2010, and now makes nearly a third of the world’s electricity. (The country’s per person electricity generation is still much lower than America’s.)
For decades, the country’s soaring power demand was fulfilled largely by coal, the most polluting fossil fuel. Coal-fired generation continued to grow, though at a slower pace, even as China significantly expanded carbon-free power in recent years, especially wind and solar.
Now, China’s power sector is getting close to a turning point.
Energy analysts expect carbon-free power to grow enough in the next few years to start pushing out coal-fired electricity here, too. And because of the country’s outsize share of the global total, peak coal power in China will likely be a global one.
How quickly coal power and related emissions will decline after that peak is less clear. In a recent agreement with the United States, China said it wouldspeed up renewable energy deployment to “accelerate the substitution for coal, oil and gas generation” and agreed to pursue “meaningful” power-sector emissions cuts over the next decade. But whether it will stop approving new coal plants remains to be seen.
What Is COP28? And Other Questions About the Big U.N. Climate Summit
Coal continues to dominate electricity generation in other rapidly-developing countries, many of them in Asia, as well.
India, the world’s most populous nation, has set strong renewable energy targets, but officials say the country still needs coal to develop its economy and provide reliable, affordable power to millions of people. Indonesia, meanwhile, said it could phase out coal power by 2040 if it gets enough financial help from rich countries to build out cleaner energy.
Financing wind and solar projects remains a challenge for developing countries, said Faran Rana, an associate program officer at the International Renewable Energy Agency. “When you look at lifecycle costs, renewables are by far more cost-competitive than any fossil-fueled generation,” he said. “But the upfront cost is a barrier.”
Millions of people around the world also continue to go without access to any form of electricity.
While major global challenges remain, said Nancy Haegel, a researcher at the United States’ National Renewable Energy Laboratory, the rapid growth of solar and wind generation so far shows that “this transition is doable and it’s well under way.”
Every Country Tells a Story
Explore trends among the world’s top power-producing countries, in alphabetical order, below.
Note: These charts show countries on their own scale, making it easier to see individual trends and power mixes. You can swap the view to “compare totals” to see which countries play an outsized role. The top 60 power-producing countries with data available through 2022 are shown.
FOSSIL
CLEAN POWER
Nuclear
Hydro
Wind & solar
Oil
Gas
Coal
See trends
Compare totals
Argentina
’00
’20
0
50,000
100,000 gigawatt hours
Australia
’00
’20
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Austria
’00
’20
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
Bangladesh
’00
’20
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
Belgium
’00
’20
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
Brazil
’00
’20
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
Bulgaria
’00
’20
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000 gigawatt hours
Canada
’00
’20
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
Chile
’00
’20
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
Chile is among a small number of countries where rising power demand has been met largely by renewable energy.
China
’00
’20
0
2 million
4 million
6 million
8 million
Colombia
’00
’20
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
Czechia
’00
’20
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000 gigawatt hours
Denmark
’00
’20
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
Ecuador
’00
’20
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
Egypt
’00
’20
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
Finland
’00
’20
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
France
’00
’20
0
200,000
400,000
Germany
’00
’20
0
200,000
400,000
600,000 gigawatt hours
Germany quickly expanded wind and solar energy but began phasing out nuclear power at the same time.
Greece
’00
’20
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
Hungary
’00
’20
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
India
’00
’20
0
500,000
1 million
1.5 million
Indonesia
’00
’20
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
Iran
’00
’20
0
100,000
200,000
300,000 gigawatt hours
Ireland
’00
’20
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
Italy
’00
’20
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
Japan
’00
’20
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1 million
Japan shut down its nuclear reactors in the years following the 2011 Fukushima disaster but recently started to reverse course.
Kazakhstan
’00
’20
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
Kuwait
’00
’20
0
20,000
40,000
60,000 gigawatt hours
Malaysia
’00
’20
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
Mexico
’00
’20
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
Netherlands
’00
’20
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
New Zealand
’00
’20
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
Nigeria
’00
’20
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
Norway
’00
’20
0
50,000
100,000
150,000 gigawatt hours
Oman
’00
’20
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
Pakistan
’00
’20
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
Peru
’00
’20
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
Philippines
’00
’20
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
Poland
’00
’20
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
Portugal
’00
’20
0
20,000
40,000 gigawatt hours
Qatar
’00
’20
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
Romania
’00
’20
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
Russia
’00
’20
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1 million
Saudi Arabia
’00
’20
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
Rising power demand in Saudi Arabia and across the Middle East has been met almost entirely by oil and gas.
Serbia
’00
’20
0
10,000
20,000
30,000 gigawatt hours
Singapore
’00
’20
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
Slovakia
’00
’20
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
South Africa
’00
’20
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
South Africa has struggled to deliver consistent power to its residents, which complicates the decline in coal power shown here.
South Korea
’00
’20
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
Spain
’00
’20
0
100,000
200,000
300,000 gigawatt hours
Sweden
’00
’20
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
Switzerland
’00
’20
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
Taiwan
’00
’20
0
100,000
200,000
Thailand
’00
’20
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
Turkey
’00
’20
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
Ukraine
’00
’20
0
50,000
100,000
150,000 gigawatt hours
United Arab Emirates
’00
’20
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
United Kingdom
’00
’20
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
United States
’00
’20
0
1 million
2 million
3 million
4 million
Vietnam
’00
’20
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Solar power took off in Vietnam but is limited by the country’s electrical grid.
Data Sources and Notes
All of the charts and the map are based on electricity generation data from Ember. The data shown here reflects power generated within a country’s borders and does not include imports or exports, which can play a large role in many countries. The data includes rooftop solar generation that is connected to the grid, but not solar generation for personal use that is not connected to the grid (“behind the meter”). Data for 2022 is estimated. More detail on Ember’s methodology can be found here.
In the charts, the hydroelectric category includes generation from other renewable sources of power besides wind and solar, but in most cases hydro dominates the category. Similarly, the oil category includes generation from other remaining fossil fuels.
In the map, countries are categorized as having “mostly clean” electricity generation if less than 15 percent of their generation came from fossil fuel sources in the latest available year. Countries are categorized as having “declining fossil power” if fossil-fueled generation reached a maximum at least five years ago and then declined, and if the trend was not solely attributable to a fall in demand. Countries where fossil-fueled generation was flat in recent years and ones where a reliable trend could not be identified are categorized under “plateau or other trend,” along with several other patterns that do not clearly fit into the other categories. “Rising fossil power” countries have not yet reached a peak in fossil-fueled power generation.
Additional development by Michael Keller and Aatish Bhatia.