“Michael E. Mann’s Forecast Fiasco”, By Charles Rotter

“As we previously noted in our post “Michael E. Mann, the Black Knight,” he reminds us of the Monty Python character who loses every limb in battle yet stubbornly insists, “’Tis but a scratch!”

Watts Up With That?

Michael E. Mann’s Forecast Fiasco

By Charles Rotter on December 1, 2024

Well, the 2024 hurricane season has come to an end and we can now close out Michael E. Mann's forecast—delivering a prediction so spectacularly off-target it could make a dartboard blush. As we previously noted in our post “Michael E. Mann, the Black Knight,” he reminds us of the Monty Python character who loses every limb in battle yet stubbornly insists, “’Tis but a scratch!

This time, Mann's sword of speculative forecasts landed on a projection of 33 named storms for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season—"the highest count ever predicted," as he proudly declared back in April.

Well, the season has closed, and reality had other plans. Instead of the hurricane Armageddon Mann foresaw, we ended up with a grand total of 18 named storms—a far cry from the 33 he predicted. For perspective, that 18 is just barely above the historical average of 14. And for Mann, whose forecast has been roundly criticized as one of the most inaccurate in recent memory, it's more like a monument to overconfidence.

Steve Milloy of JunkScience summed it up aptly by calling Mann’s prediction “the wrongest count ever predicted.” While that might sound harsh, it’s tough to argue with the numbers. Mann didn’t just miss the bullseye—he missed the entire dartboard and hit the pub wall.

Let’s be clear: there’s nothing inherently wrong with making predictions. But when those predictions are presented with the weight of academic authority and serve as fodder for climate alarmism, they deserve scrutiny. Mann’s forecast wasn’t some cautious, probabilistic estimate; it was a bold declaration of climate doom. And when reality came knocking, it left Mann’s claims in shambles. Yet, much like the Monty Python knight, Mann continues to stand in the wreckage of his prediction, defiantly insisting, “I’m invincible!”

This isn’t the first time Mann’s claims have faced challenges. His career includes the controversial “Hockey Stick” graph, which has been the subject of ongoing debate for decades. While Mann’s defenders argue that his methods were groundbreaking, his critics contend that they relied heavily on selective data and opaque statistical techniques. The 33-storm prediction seems to follow a similar pattern: overselling an extreme scenario to grab headlines, only for the facts to come up far less dramatic.

Now, Mann’s defenders might argue that a lower-than-expected storm count is itself evidence of climate unpredictability or variability. That’s the beauty of these forecasts—they’re often so malleable that no matter what happens, they can be spun to support the broader narrative of a climate crisis. If there had been 33 storms, Mann might have been hailed as a prophet. With 18 storms, he can pivot to discussing how unpredictability is proof of our dangerous climate future. It’s a win-win—for him, at least.

The real issue here isn’t just Mann’s blown forecast; it’s the broader impact of such exaggerated predictions. They feed into the narrative that extreme climate policies—like Net Zero mandates, carbon taxes, and bans on conventional energy—are urgent and necessary. But when those policies are based on flawed or overstated science, the costs fall on ordinary people. Energy prices spike, economic growth slows, and yet the climate models driving these policies continue to falter.

So what should we take from Mann’s hurricane misfire? First, that bold claims demand bold evidence—and a track record of accuracy to back them up. Second, that predictions are only as useful as their outcomes, and Mann’s hurricane forecast falls squarely into the “not useful” category. Finally, that science isn’t served by doubling down on failed predictions; it’s served by acknowledging uncertainty and revising approaches when the facts don’t align.

Mann’s 2024 hurricane forecast wasn’t the tempest he predicted—it was a storm in a teapot, a phrase that’s been around far longer than Monty Python’s Black Knight but captures the same essence of exaggerated drama leading to anticlimactic reality. Instead of ushering in a new era of catastrophic storms, the season fizzled into an average year that left Mann’s 33-storm prophecy looking more like a footnote in the annals of overblown climate predictions. Perhaps next time, instead of swinging wildly at reality, Mann might consider grounding his forecasts in, well, reality itself. Because when your predictions consistently miss the mark, it’s time to set down the teapot and take a good, hard look at the kettle.