Our Take, With Doug Sheridan
EPA’s rule will require electric models to account for 60% of new urban delivery trucks and 25% of long-haul tractor sales by 2032. The harm is predictable.
The EPA chose Good Friday to roll out its burdensome electric truck mandate, no doubt so fewer people notice. The standards for will effectively require that electric semi-trucks make up an increasing share of manufacturer sales from 2027 through 2032, similar to its recent rule for passenger cars. The difference is that the truck mandate is even more costly and fanciful.
EVs make up less than 1% of US heavy-duty truck sales, and nearly all are in California. EPA’s rule will require electric models to account for 60% of new urban delivery trucks and 25% of long-haul tractor sales by 2032. The harm is predictable.
No electric long-haul tractors are currently in mass production. Most electric trucks can’t go more than 170 miles on a charge. Electric semis require bigger and heavier batteries, which means they must carry lighter loads to avoid damaging roads.
Fleet operators will have to use more trucks to transport the same amount of goods. This will increase vehicle congestion, especially around ports and distribution centers. More traffic will result in more pollution.
Power generation and transmission will have to massively expand to support millions of new “zero-emission” trucks. An electric semi consumes about seven times as much electricity on a single charge as a typical home does in a day. Truck charging depots can draw as much power from the grid as small cities. By 2030 electric trucks are projected to consume about 11% of California’s electricity.
Some 1.4 million chargers will have to be installed by 2032 to achieve the EPA’s mandate, about 15,000 a month. This will require major grid upgrades when there are shortages of critical components such as transformers. It could take up to eight years to develop transmission and substations in many places to support truck chargers.
Replacing diesel trucks with electric will cost the trucking industry tens of billion dollars each year. Truckers will pass on these costs to customers—meaning US manufacturers and retailers—which will ultimately pass them on to Americans in higher prices.
EPA says its big-rig quotas are feasible because the IRA and 2021 infrastructure law include hundreds of billions of dollars in subsidies for EVs. IRA tax credits for electric trucks aren’t conditioned on the source of battery material, so expect most to come from China.
Cue US truck manufacturers, which are pleading for more handouts. “The EPA’s new heavy-duty emissions rule is challenging,” Ford said, noting they will require more “incentives and public investment.” So the admin uses subsidies to justify a burdensome mandate, which then causes companies to lobby for more subsidies. What a racket.
Our Take: The Board notes that EPA’s press release highlighted laudatory statements from leftwing groups including the Hip Hop Caucus, which claims to use “cultural expression to dismantle oppressive systems.” Okay, then.