Steven Koonin writes in the WSJ, a recent NASA
It is embarrassing that NOAA and NASA continue to politicalize weather.
Steven Koonin writes in the WSJ, a recent NASA - National Aeronautics and Space Administration report yet again raises alarm that New Yorkers are about to be inundated by rapidly rising seas. But a review of the data suggests such warnings need to be taken with more than a few grains of sea salt.
By Doug Sheridan
Steven Koonin writes in the WSJ, a recent NASA - National Aeronautics and Space Administration report yet again raises alarm that New Yorkers are about to be inundated by rapidly rising seas. But a review of the data suggests such warnings need to be taken with more than a few grains of sea salt.
The record of sea level measured at the southern tip of Manhattan, known as the Battery, begins in 1856. It shows that today’s waters are 19 inches higher than they were 166 years ago, rising an average of 3.5 inches every 30 years. The geologic record shows this rise began some 20,000 years ago.
Sea level at the Battery will continue to rise in coming decades, if only because the land has been steadily sinking about 2 inches every 30 years because of factors including tectonic motion, rebound from the mass of the glaciers, and local subsidence.
Rather, the question is whether growing human influences on the climate will cause sea level to rise more rapidly. To judge that, we can compare recent rates of rise with those in the past, when human influences were much smaller.
The attached chart shows how much sea level rose during the 30 years prior to each year since 1920. That rise has varied between 1.5 and 6 inches. The 5-inch rise over the most recent 30 years is higher than the centurylong average but isn’t unprecedented and shows no sign of increasing.
As the Earth warms, changes in sea level at the Battery will depend in part on global changes. These include the loss of ice from mountain glaciers, Greenland and Antarctica as well as the ocean’s expansion as it warms. It’s difficult to predict these changes.
Despite this, the recent NASA report echoes a NOAA: National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration report predicting more than one-foot of rise at the Battery by 2050. Such a rise during the coming 30 years would be more than double the rise over the past 30 years and more than triple the past century’s average.
To Sum It Up: While New Yorkers should watch the waters around them, there's no need to dash to higher ground. The Battery’s sea level hasn’t done anything in recent decades it hasn’t done over the past century. We’ll have to wait 30 years to test the predicted 1-foot rise, but measurements over the next decade should tell us how quickly we’ll need to raise the seawalls.
Our Take: Koonin's analysis is how objective scientists should communicate risks around climate change. It's a shame so many have chosen a path of alarmism.
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