“The Brief – Green backlash pending in Germany?”, By Jasper Steinlein, Euractiv
“In full campaign mode, Germany’s conservatives are blaming the country’s economic woes on the very party they may have to form a government with: the Greens.”
The Brief – Green backlash pending in Germany?
In full campaign mode, Germany’s conservatives are blaming the country’s economic woes on the very party they may have to form a government with: the Greens.
Disclaimer - All opinions in this column reflect the views of the author(s), not Euractiv Media.
The Brief is Euractiv's afternoon newsletter. [(Photo by Marco Steinbrenner/DeFodi Images via Getty Images)]
Jasper Steinlein Euractiv Dec 11, 2024 16:20 7 min. read Content type: Opinion
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German conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party is getting ready for a political takeover in February's snap elections and has not shied away from blaming the Green party and their Economy Minister Robert Habeck for dragging the country into recession with an “ideology-driven” approach.
But so far there is little to suggest that if the conservatives win, their energy and climate policies will completely reverse Habeck’s strategy, despite their campaigning suggesting otherwise.
The CDU's opposition formula is tried and true: pin the blame on Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Vice-Chancellor and Economy Minister Robert Habeck for everything from the economic slowdown to bad weather – if only they could stretch it that far.
"The minister of economy particularly prides himself in the role of an especially modern reformer," wrote CDU leading candidate Friedrich Merz in his newsletter, accusing Habeck of dismissing anything resembling past economic policies as 'old thinking'.
"Ludwig Erhard [CDU's post-war economic mastermind] says ‘thank you’ to this from the bottom of his heart." For Germans aged 60 and older - who now make up about 40% of the electorate - Merz’s reference to the father of West Germany’s economic miracle hits home. Remember when things worked?
But Merz's call for “optimism” at the end of his message seems hypocritical, given how much he stands to gain politically from the current economic doom and anxiety that has gripped Berlin.
Since the collapse of the governing coalition in early November, the conservative CDU and its Bavarian ally, the Christian Social Union (CSU), have led the way, while the remaining minority government of Social Democrats, Greens, and a non-affiliated transport minister has struggled.
“Our measures have not been up to par with the problems we have to cope with," a visibly strained Habeck admitted at an industry conference hosted by his ministry in late November.
For now, cabinet members have resorted to publishing strategy papers and hosting and attending many “industry conferences” to make the best of a sub-optimal job – to the point that the conservatives’ economy spokesperson Julia Klöckner spoke of “a summit inflation that fails to solve a single problem” in Berlin.
Klöckner, a former agrifood minister, has a penchant for colourful language, frequently accusing the failed coalition of “wealth destruction”and “green ideology" – even as her own party uses these events as campaign platforms.
CDU/CSU deputy fraction leader Jens Spahn faced a tough crowd at the annual meeting of Germany’s heat pump association in November when he announced that the CDU/CSU “wants to and will change” the Buildings Energy Act in the interests of “technology neutrality". This law mandates the replacement of fossil fuel heating systems with renewable technologies like district heating or heat pumps.
Spahn then declared that energy policy, “a matter of common sense,” had become “a matter of faith” before rambling about “his mother being confused by regulation chaos” and “short of money” for anything other than fossil fuel-based heating – which could one day be powered by “green oil."
Apart from the fact that such a substance has yet to be discovered or invented, the conservative antidote to “green ideology” frequently seems to be 'inaccuracy.' What they call 'Habeck’s Heating Law' came into force in 2020 under the then CDU chancellor Angela Merkel, and was reformed by a parliamentary vote in 2023.
German researchers found that the CDU/CSU’s repeated claim that the German government wanted to “enter every household’s boiler room with a crowbar” shaped what scientists consider “a model case of failed political communication" – and, thus, confused Spahn’s mother. Ironically, the vast majority of heat pump owners have identified themselves as “CDU/CSU voters” in a survey.
But there is another conservative variation of a classic German trope: southern exceptionalism.
Markus Söder, CSU party leader, has long portrayed the Greens as his nemesis in public speeches, but he is now calling for “no more Robert Habeck" – especially after Bavaria was snubbed by energy policy prestige projects like the 'carbon contracts for difference' and the hydrogen core grid.
Söder blames Habeck for driving the country into recession, citing a series of unsuccessful state-backed projects such as Northvolt, Green Steel at ThyssenKrupp or Intel.
While these projects are certainly not thriving, the energy crisis, inflation, recession and general anxiety among German entrepreneurs after a pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the re-election of Donald Trump as US president are hardly Habeck’s fault alone.
Söder’s ad hominem attacks are not in tune with the conservative chancellor hopeful Merz. He sees common ground with the Greens' foreign policy and prides himself “a devoted European, a devoted transatlanticist."
Given the CDU’s continued commitment to EU climate goals and its need for coalition partners after February’s snap elections, actual changes in energy and climate policy might be less pervasive than the noise during campaigning.
On Tuesday (17 December), CDU/CSU will announce their official election programme in Berlin. On a policy level, the “turnaround” they promise to voters might largely focus on tackling migration, bureaucracy and a more neoliberal approach to the economy while leaving a large chunk of “green” energy and climate policies in place.