1 Comment

This is all to common in the field of forecasting. You give way range of future scenarios-all hedonically adjusted-and present it in a way that fits a narrative all the while ignoring reality. It works out like this for most forecast: CBO, NOAA Hurricane, Covid, BLS. gun violence, etc. What's more cynically is when adjustments are made, they generally do not support the narrative, see NOAA hurricane adjustments job reports, or GDP revisions. All the while that are able to point to the original data presented and run with it.

Expand full comment