The link between extreme weather and climate change has never been more clear
Experts say drawing the direct connection from specific storms to the nebulous idea of climate change can help people
The link between extreme weather and climate change has never been more clear
Experts say drawing the direct connection from specific storms to the nebulous idea of climate change can help people
National Geographic use to be a great source of information about the rest of the world, in narrative and photographs. Now, they are just another environmental propagandist.
"but will become much more frequent". We've been hearing this for over 30 years. Now we're increasingly hearing "Significant things are happening now" as if significant things are something new. I have had very intelligent people tell me we are now experiencing a big change in our climate because "the models said it will happen"; despite scientific observations to the contrary. Many still insist the models are right (unfortunately including NASA), while others fall back on "we'll see it for certain in the next 15 years". It should be noted that NASA, NOAA, the MET OFFICE, and the IPCC have many excellent scientists on the payroll but their official reports are presented by political appointees. Something we do know for certain is that NASA, along with others, have made and are continuing to make "adjustments" to past and present temperatures. These adjustments Always make the record look more and more like Michael Mann's discredited Hockey Stick, which is statistically all but impossible.
It’s misleading to quote “relative risk”, as when saying that “climate change made this sort of event twice as likely to occur”. To understand the significance of the relative risk, you have to understand the absolute risk.
For example, if I spend a dollar on a lottery ticket where the grand prize is $10 million dollars, my absolute risk of winning is less than 1-in-10 million, unless, for some reason, the organization running the lottery is doing so at a loss. In that light, I shouldn’t make any big plans for my winnings, until I know for sure that my numbers came up.
Now, if I buy 5 lottery tickets, my relative risk of winning is five times greater, or 5-in-10 million, otherwise known as 1-in-2 million. So, a five times greater relative risk sounds dramatic, but the fact that my absolute risk increased by only 4-in-10 million means I’m still very unlikely to win the lottery. Looked at the other way round, with one ticket my probability of NOT winning was 9,999,999 in 10,000,000, or 99.99999%. With five tickets, my risk of NOT winning dropped to 99.99995%. Whoopee! You don’t plan your life based on those sorts of odds.
In terms of weather, if my risk of being hit by a tornado in Nova Scotia is very low (like 1-in-10 million), and climate change makes it 5 times more likely, or even 10 times, I still don’t think I’m going to run out to buy tornado insurance!
And, as an afterthought, it’s worth noting that climate change, if it really exists, not only makes the nasty weather nastier, it also makes the nice weather nicer. So, if we are going to start figuring out that a specific storm was 10% worse, thanks to global warming, we should also start to consider that today’s sunny weather was 10% sunnier that it would have been, back in the good old days. Because global warming is reducing the severity of winter weather, and more people die of cold weather events than warm weather events, there’s an argument that climate change actually saves lives.
"but will become much more frequent". We've been hearing this for over 30 years. Now we're increasingly hearing "Significant things are happening now" as if significant things are something new. I have had very intelligent people tell me we are now experiencing a big change in our climate because "the models said it will happen"; despite scientific observations to the contrary. Many still insist the models are right (unfortunately including NASA), while others fall back on "we'll see it for certain in the next 15 years". It should be noted that NASA, NOAA, the MET OFFICE, and the IPCC have many excellent scientists on the payroll but their official reports are presented by political appointees. Something we do know for certain is that NASA, along with others, have made and are continuing to make "adjustments" to past and present temperatures. These adjustments Always make the record look more and more like Michael Mann's discredited Hockey Stick, which is statistically all but impossible.
It’s misleading to quote “relative risk”, as when saying that “climate change made this sort of event twice as likely to occur”. To understand the significance of the relative risk, you have to understand the absolute risk.
For example, if I spend a dollar on a lottery ticket where the grand prize is $10 million dollars, my absolute risk of winning is less than 1-in-10 million, unless, for some reason, the organization running the lottery is doing so at a loss. In that light, I shouldn’t make any big plans for my winnings, until I know for sure that my numbers came up.
Now, if I buy 5 lottery tickets, my relative risk of winning is five times greater, or 5-in-10 million, otherwise known as 1-in-2 million. So, a five times greater relative risk sounds dramatic, but the fact that my absolute risk increased by only 4-in-10 million means I’m still very unlikely to win the lottery. Looked at the other way round, with one ticket my probability of NOT winning was 9,999,999 in 10,000,000, or 99.99999%. With five tickets, my risk of NOT winning dropped to 99.99995%. Whoopee! You don’t plan your life based on those sorts of odds.
In terms of weather, if my risk of being hit by a tornado in Nova Scotia is very low (like 1-in-10 million), and climate change makes it 5 times more likely, or even 10 times, I still don’t think I’m going to run out to buy tornado insurance!
And, as an afterthought, it’s worth noting that climate change, if it really exists, not only makes the nasty weather nastier, it also makes the nice weather nicer. So, if we are going to start figuring out that a specific storm was 10% worse, thanks to global warming, we should also start to consider that today’s sunny weather was 10% sunnier that it would have been, back in the good old days. Because global warming is reducing the severity of winter weather, and more people die of cold weather events than warm weather events, there’s an argument that climate change actually saves lives.